Articles

What are the Chances of Breeding a Top 10 Bull for LPI or TPI?

Reprinted from Winter 2012 issue of Cowsmopolitan page 16 By Doug Blair

To be in the Top 10 Group for TPI or LPI in the USA or Canada is an exclusive club for bulls. Do they come from a few herds or well-known prefixes? The answer is a resounding NO. For every 20 herds that have bred a Top 10 bull for TPI in the USA or LPI in Canada, 17 or 85% of them have never bred a bull in this exclusive club before. This is as true today as it ever was.

The tables below will show the odds of success and list the breeders who have succeeded in beating these odds.

HISTORY TELLS:
TABLE A: Canada
Canada’s Leading Breeders of Top 10 Proven LPI Bulls 1991-Aug 2012
211 Bulls have achieved this rank in 21 years

LEADING BREEDERS

 

# Bulls

Total

 
Comestar

11

11

 
Gillette

7

7

 
Hanoverhill

6

6

 
Regancrest

6

6

 
Braedale

5

5

 
Meadow Bridge

5

5

 
Bosside

3

3

 
Gen-I-Beq

3

3

 
La Presentation

3

3

 
Pennview

3

3

 
Ricecrest

3

3

 
Startmore

3

3

 
Summershade

3

3

 
 

 
11 herds

2

22

 
129 herds 85% of herds

1

129

61% of total bulls
Total herds

152

 
Total bulls

211

 

Approximately 425 Holstein bulls per year were proven in Canada during this period.
On average, 10 new bulls join the Top 10 LPI list each year. The record shows that 85% of herds on the list have bred 1 bull accounting for 61% of the total bulls. The odds of breeding a Top 10 LPI bull have been a little less than 2% since American and European bulls used in Canada can also achieve Top 10 status.

TABLE A shows the record of the leading breeders of the Top 10 LPI in Canada. Most are familiar names including historically significant ones like Hanoverhill. The leader is Comestar by a wide margin. Comestar is unique in that all 11 bulls are from 1 cow family – the Laurie Sheiks. Gillette continues to produce winners with 3 new sires in the past 5 years and 7 overall. In the last 5 years, Braedale has added 2 and Comestar and Regancrest have added 1 new sire to their totals respectively. Gen-I-Beq has bred 3, all in the past 3 years.

Congratulations to the 152 herd owners that have bred these top sires over the past 21 years.

Table B: USA
Leading Breeders of Top 10 TPI Sires 1976-Aug 2012
306 Bulls have achieved this rank in 36 years

LEADING BREEDERS

 

 # Bulls

  Total

 
Ricecrest

9

9

 
End Road

5

5

 
Sandy Valley

5

5

 
Arlinda

4

4

 
Bis May

3

3

 
Emerald Acres

3

3

 
Co-op 3 3

3

3

 
 

 
32 herds

2

64

 
210 herds 84% of herds

1

210

69% of Bulls
Total herds

249

 
 Total sires

306

 

Approximately 1200 Holstein Bulls per year were proven in the USA during this period. On average, 8.5 new bulls join the Top 10 TPI Bull list each year. The record shows that 84% of herds have bred 1 bull accounting for 69% of the total bulls. These numbers are remarkably close to the results in Canada especially the number of herds with 1 bull each. The odds of achieving a Top 10 TPI bull in the USA has been just under 1% because of the number of bulls sampled each year. The leading herd is Ricecrest with a commanding lead of 9 sires – all proven prior to 2005. End Road moved into a tie for second place with 5 of which 2 were proven in the last 5 years. Sandy Valley also has 5 of which 1 was proven in the last 5 years. A new name on the TPI list has been Co-op, the nucleus herd of CRI, with 3 Top 10 bulls in the past 3 years.

Congratulations to all the breeders who have successfully bred a Top 10 sire in Canada and the U.S.A.

We are now moving into the genomic era and the great hope is that the genomic information available on young bulls will greatly improve the odds of identifying the very top sires early.

 


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